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Title:

A novel probabilistic risk analysis to determine the vulnerability of ecosystems to extreme climatic events

Document type:
Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Author(s):
van Oijen, Marcel; Beer, Christian; Cramer, Wolfgang; Rammig, Anja; Reichstein, Markus; Rolinski, Susanne; Soussana, Jean-Francois
Abstract:
We present a simple method of probabilistic risk analysis for ecosystems. The only requirements are time series---modelled or measured---of environment and ecosystem variables. Risk is defined as the product of hazard probability and ecosystem vulnerability. Vulnerability is the expected difference in ecosystem performance between years with and without hazardous conditions. We show an application to drought risk for net primary productivity of coniferous forests across Europe, for both recent a...     »
Journal title:
Environmental Research Letters
Year:
2013
Journal volume:
8
Journal issue:
1
Pages contribution:
015032
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