Probabilistic GIS-based technical potential assessment of hydrothermal energy in Bavaria

Geothermal energy is expected to play an important role in the German power transition. State-of-the-art geothermal technology is capable of providing base load power, of using heat directly, and of coupling the heat and power sectors. Although several studies have established the existence of hydrothermal resources in Southern Germany, a region that partly lies on the Molasse Basin, the amounts of power and heat that could be generated and their geographical distribution remain largely unknown. Yet, such information is crucial for the optimization of the energy system expansion and operation, which relies on models with a high spatial resolution. In this study, key reservoir parameters are used in a GIS-based Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the probable range and spatial distribution of the technical potential of hydrothermal energy in the Bavarian region. A sensitivity analysis, where the uncertainty of the geological variables is characterized using different probability distributions, is also performed allowing the uncertainty of the results to be quantified. The assessed technical potential is then validated with data from existing geothermal projects. Whereas a thorough reservoir characterization is needed before any geothermal exploration is conducted, priority should be given to areas identified with high potential and low uncertainties.     «

Geothermal energy is expected to play an important role in the German power transition. State-of-the-art geothermal technology is capable of providing base load power, of using heat directly, and of coupling the heat and power sectors. Although several studies have established the existence of hydrothermal resources in Southern Germany, a region that partly lies on the Molasse Basin, the amounts of power and heat that could be generated and their geog...     »