Forecasting of Future Developments based on Historic Analysis

Due to a high required variety and changes in the environment, product platforms should represent a stable, unchanged core over its lifecycle. Flexible modules provide the product differentiation. We developed a three-step analysis and forecast approach: the first step includes a historic analysis of offered variants. Based on this, a prognosis of future developments is executed by mathematical models. In the last step, the previous results are compared to determine the dynamics of the characteristics for a robust product platform design. The approach is validated by an industrial case study.     «

Due to a high required variety and changes in the environment, product platforms should represent a stable, unchanged core over its lifecycle. Flexible modules provide the product differentiation. We developed a three-step analysis and forecast approach: the first step includes a historic analysis of offered variants. Based on this, a prognosis of future developments is executed by mathematical models. In the last step, the previous results are compared to determine the dynamics of the character...     »