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Title:

A Markov Chain Model of Tornadic Activity

Document type:
Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Author(s):
Drton, Mathias; Marzban, Caren; Guttorp, Peter; Schaefer, Joseph T.
Abstract:
Tornadic activity in four U.S. regions is stochastically modeled based on data on tornado counts over the years 1953–98. It is shown that tornadic activity on a given day is mostly affected by the activity on the previous day. Hence, the process can be modeled as a Markov chain. A parametric nonhomogenous Markov chain model is developed based on the well-known increase of tornadic activity in the spring and summer months. This model, with only eight parameters, describes tornadic activity quite...     »
Dewey Decimal Classification:
510 Mathematik
Journal title:
Monthly Weather Review
Year:
2003
Journal volume:
131
Year / month:
2003-12
Quarter:
4. Quartal
Month:
Dec
Journal issue:
12
Pages contribution:
2941-2953
Language:
en
Fulltext / DOI:
doi:10.1175/1520-0493(2003)131<2941:amcmot>2.0.co;2
WWW:
American Meteorological Society
Publisher:
American Meteorological Society
E-ISSN:
0027-06441520-0493
Date of publication:
01.12.2003
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