The purpose of this paper is to analyze the influence and impact of the COIVD-19 pandemic on emerging real estate sectors.
The study was conducted for the period from 09/01/2017 to 08/31/2022 (n = 1812) based on the U.S. real estate market. On account of past performance, the following real estate sectors were identified as growing: industry, self storage, data centers, residential, manufactured homes, and cell towers. Additionally, the healthcare sector was analyzed as it was of increased interest during the pandemic.
To clarify the research question, a multiple linear regression was conducted. The regression was based on daily data to reflect the volatile patterns during the pandemic. Direct real estate data is not available in these short intervals because the real estate market is very illiquid and intransparent. For this reason, several sector REIT indices were chosen for this study. Due to the boundary conditions, the explanatory variables consist primarily of stock market data, macroeconomic data and COVID data.
A significant model was formed from the explanatory variables using multiple linear regression. The model was created on the basis of the overall market so that the entire market and all sectors can be described with just one model.
A seven-day forecast was then carried out on the basis of that model.
When analyzing the model, it becomes evident that stock market data form the largest part of the explanatory power. A large portion of the COVID data turns out not to be statistically significant and was therefore removed from the model. Only the "COVID stringency index" and the number of daily doses of vaccine given are statistically significant. Because of efficient markets a lot of the COVID information enters the model indirectly through the stock market data. Further analysis showed that this model describes a shortened period during the pandemic significantly better (adj. R2 = 0.792) than the pre-pandemic period (adj. R2 = 0.535).
The impact of the COVID pandemic cannot be quantified directly with numbers, as much of the information works its way into the model indirectly via the stock indices. During the COVID pandemic, the returns of the emerging real estate sectors increased significantly (in some cases tripled). Therefore, it can be assumed that the pandemic had a very strong impact on these real estate classes
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The purpose of this paper is to analyze the influence and impact of the COIVD-19 pandemic on emerging real estate sectors.
The study was conducted for the period from 09/01/2017 to 08/31/2022 (n = 1812) based on the U.S. real estate market. On account of past performance, the following real estate sectors were identified as growing: industry, self storage, data centers, residential, manufactured homes, and cell towers. Additionally, the healthcare sector was analyzed as it was of increased in...
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