The outbreak of the financial crisis, which reached its peak in 2008 with the collapse of the investment bank Lehman Brothers, left the European Central Bank (ECB) with a series of new challenges. As a result, the ECB's primary aim of preserving price stability was no longer possible in the conventional way, as the interest rate decreases made in response to the threat of deflation almost completely exhausted the scope for further rate reduction.
To restore its options for action and control, the ECB subsequently introduced unconventional measures. These essentially consist of four instruments Quantitative Easing, negative key interest rates, Credit Easing and Forward Guidance.
These instruments support credit flows and increase the amount of money available to market participants. In addition to the influence on the primary target of maintaining price stability by allowing the ECB to continue to influence the economy through its unconventional measures, there are also significant effects on sub-sectors of the economy, including the real estate market. For example, an increase in the money supply in conjunction with a favorable interest rate environment can lead to increased lending and, as a result, to increased investment activity. This increased investment activity can also manifest itself, for example, in the form of an increase in real estate transactions and thus lead to a change in the price of real estate.
The aim of this thesis is to analyse these effects of unconventional monetary policy on real estate prices by using empirical analyses. For this purpose, the effects of unconventional monetary policy on German residential property prices were investigated using a regression model. The results were significant for direct and also indirect relationships.
Significant results for a direct relationship were shown in a negative correlation of the housing loan interest rate development with a delay of two quarters, a positive correlation for lending with a delay of two quarters and a positive correlation of the consumer price index. These results show that there is a dependence on the price level of residential property for the effects of the respective unconventional monetary policy measures.
For the change in securities of Euro area residents denominated in Euro, which account for more than half of the ECB's assets due to quantitative easing, no significant direct relationship could be identified. However, empirical evidence for a relationship between the change in lending to domestic enterprises and households and the change in the stock of securities can be identified. The active increase of the securities portfolio, supplemented by the announcement of the ECB to maintain the bond purchase programs on a long-term basis, represents a liquidity promise to the market participants. This in turn leads to a reduction in the long-term interest rate. The resulting positive influence on financing costs and lending favors the purchase of real estate and the rising demand increases the price.
The determined results prove that the unconventional measures have both a direct and an indirect influence on the development of the housing property price.
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The outbreak of the financial crisis, which reached its peak in 2008 with the collapse of the investment bank Lehman Brothers, left the European Central Bank (ECB) with a series of new challenges. As a result, the ECB's primary aim of preserving price stability was no longer possible in the conventional way, as the interest rate decreases made in response to the threat of deflation almost completely exhausted the scope for further rate reduction.
To restore its options for action and control...
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