Air Traffic Growth, Energy and the Environment 2040: Drivers, Challenges and Opportunities for Aviation

Although there is a general agreement that civil aviation will continue its expansion in all major regions of the world within the next decade, its long-term development is highly uncertain. Aviation stakeholders (especially airlines) build their strategies upon time frames of roughly five to ten years while politics and regulatory authorities define goals for the entire industry that reach far beyond that. This paper presents how the scenario technique can help to interconnect short-term strategies with long-term visions. Three dominant factors determining the future of civil aviation are identified and explored: the increasing scarcity of fossil resources, the change of global climate and the world’s growing demand for mobility. The paper addresses intensely discussed issues like the future role of sustainable fuels in aviation by exposing the results of a foresight project performed by the authors together with industry experts and students. Three alternative, comprehensive pictures of the future (scenarios) are described including top-level statements about the world’s political and economic situation in 2040 as well as detailed descriptions of how the civil aviation sector will look like. Based on the intended dissimilarity of the three future scenarios, robust strategy options for airlines, manufacturers and airports are eventually portrayed.     «

Although there is a general agreement that civil aviation will continue its expansion in all major regions of the world within the next decade, its long-term development is highly uncertain. Aviation stakeholders (especially airlines) build their strategies upon time frames of roughly five to ten years while politics and regulatory authorities define goals for the entire industry that reach far beyond that. This paper presents how the scenario technique can help to interconnect short-term strate...     »