Applying Quantitative Scenario Planning in Early Conceptual Aircraft Design

Integrating and managing uncertainty in the early product development process is especially crucial for aircraft manufacturers given the typically high technical and organizational complexity, extensive development cost and long product life cycles. The decision-making process when initiating new aircraft development programs is expected to be rigorous, as implementing fundamental changes in later development phases become excessively high. Scenario planning methods are an effective instrument in managing uncertainty in product development. Such an application requires an effective integration in an environment where robust quantitative requirements are necessary. A quantitative scenario model is developed based on causal analysis of the global civil air transport system. This paper proposes an integrated technology assessment process utilizing quantitative scenarios for the derivation of robust requirements in evaluating new civil aircraft concepts. This integrated technology assessment process enables, with the integration of the fleet system dynamics model, quantitative cross-scenario evaluation at all levels.     «

Integrating and managing uncertainty in the early product development process is especially crucial for aircraft manufacturers given the typically high technical and organizational complexity, extensive development cost and long product life cycles. The decision-making process when initiating new aircraft development programs is expected to be rigorous, as implementing fundamental changes in later development phases become excessively high. Scenario planning methods are an effective instrument i...     »