Automation in Future Air Transport: a Scenario-Based Approach to the Definition of Operational Requirements

A thorough definition and analysis of require-ments is the crucial first step of any successful product development process. Yet, anticipating the right requirements to meet the future market needs is a very difficult task that requires abilities to precisely understand problems and make ro-bust decisions without knowing the future. In the aviation industry, long product lifecycles make this task even more vital for a successful product policy on the one hand, but also more challeng-ing on the other hand. This paper demonstrates how scenario planning techniques can be ap-plied to support the requirements elicitation phase under uncertainty when developing new products by portraying the methodical approach and obtained results of a recently completed foresight study. The thematic focus was on the future potential role of automation in civil air transport with a time horizon until 2050. Three alternative future scenarios were developed, forming the basis of a detailed analysis of the future traveler’s characteristics and needs in order to derive high-level requirements for more automated air travel operating processes.     «

A thorough definition and analysis of require-ments is the crucial first step of any successful product development process. Yet, anticipating the right requirements to meet the future market needs is a very difficult task that requires abilities to precisely understand problems and make ro-bust decisions without knowing the future. In the aviation industry, long product lifecycles make this task even more vital for a successful product policy on the one hand, but also more challeng-ing on the o...     »