Modelling a Low-Carbon Power System for Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore

The power demand of Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore is predicted to increase dramatically in the next decades. Due to abundant reserves of coal and gas in the region, the extensive use of fossil fuels is most likely to cover the future power demand of these countries, leading to an enormous growth of CO2 emissions. In this paper, we analyse the impact of restrictions on CO2 emissions on the power supply of Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore in the year 2035. Based on a reference scenario without restrictions on CO2 emissions, cost-minimal options for a more sustainable power supply with lower CO2 emissions are developed. In our study, we use a linear programming model that optimises power systems in hourly time steps by minimising their total generation and transmission cost. Results show that even without CO2 restrictions, the generation potential of geothermal, hydro and biomass is almost completely used. Without restrictions, CO2 emissions related to power generation increase from 217 mio. tons in 2012 to 944 mio. tons in 2035 as the power generation is strongly based on coal. The construction of gas-fired power plants and solar PV reduces CO2 emissions most cost-efficiently. Further cost-minimised reduction of CO2 emissions requires the installation of wind turbines. The construction of international transmission lines has the potential to save total cost of generation and transmission in the order of some percent.     «

The power demand of Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore is predicted to increase dramatically in the next decades. Due to abundant reserves of coal and gas in the region, the extensive use of fossil fuels is most likely to cover the future power demand of these countries, leading to an enormous growth of CO2 emissions. In this paper, we analyse the impact of restrictions on CO2 emissions on the power supply of Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore in the year 2035. Based on a reference scenario wit...     »