Using the exchangeability method, we quantitatively elicit Italian farmers' short- and long-run
risk perceptions concerning key crop loss hazards whose relevance depends upon climate
developments: hail, powdery mildew for winegrowers and apple dieback for apple farmers.
We show that long-run perceptions are significantly higher than short-run perceptions and
identify climate change beliefs and experience with crop damages as critical factors in
explaining this difference. From a policy prospective, our results suggest that an effective
outreach service would benefit from offering farmers first-hand on-farm experience with crop
risk and a “segmented” approach that takes into consideration farmers’ climate change beliefs.
«
Using the exchangeability method, we quantitatively elicit Italian farmers' short- and long-run
risk perceptions concerning key crop loss hazards whose relevance depends upon climate
developments: hail, powdery mildew for winegrowers and apple dieback for apple farmers.
We show that long-run perceptions are significantly higher than short-run perceptions and
identify climate change beliefs and experience with crop damages as critical factors in
explaining this difference. From a policy pros...
»