Impact of varying boundary conditions on the development of future energy systems

With increasing frequency, we are experiencing large-scale events that affect our energy supply. To identify possible future scenarios and transformation paths of our energy system, a large number of institutes are studying the German energy system in energy system models. In this article, 40 such system studies are analyzed with a focus on the German power sector. In all scenarios, a strong expansion of renewable energies is assumed. The reason for this is in particular the advancing electrification and increasing application of power-to-X technologies. Nevertheless, conventional power plants are considered in most studies as important flexibility providers both during the transformation and in the long term. The largest differences within the studies are based on the representation of the heat, mobility and industry sectors. The influence of changing boundary conditions is examined, where in particular, societal acceptance and the level of ambition show a strong influence. In most cases, low ambition or societal resistance lead to an additional effort regarding the transformation of the energy system and thus to higher costs, which ultimately have to be paid by the general public. In particular, the expansion of wind power plants should be approached in close cooperation with the population in order to be able to meet the ambitious current expansion targets of the German government.     «

With increasing frequency, we are experiencing large-scale events that affect our energy supply. To identify possible future scenarios and transformation paths of our energy system, a large number of institutes are studying the German energy system in energy system models. In this article, 40 such system studies are analyzed with a focus on the German power sector. In all scenarios, a strong expansion of renewable energies is assumed. The reason for this is in particular the advancing...     »