This paper examines excess mortality for the year 2020 in Germany, Hungary, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom. In each case, both the total population and the difference between men and women are considered. First, the theory of mortality rates and their prediction using the Lee-Carter model is described. It is assumed that the number of deaths follows a Poisson distribution. Three Lee-Carter models are then fitted for all countries, each describing the mortality of the total, female and male population, and then the models are used to make a prediction for 2020. Depending on whether the real values lie in or outside a forecast interval, no or significant under-mortality or over-mortality is assumed. When comparing these results, it can be seen that there is a clear excess mortality for people over 60 years of age for both men and women. There is no difference in the amount of percentage excess mortality between the female and male population.     «

This paper examines excess mortality for the year 2020 in Germany, Hungary, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom. In each case, both the total population and the difference between men and women are considered. First, the theory of mortality rates and their prediction using the Lee-Carter model is described. It is assumed that the number of deaths follows a Poisson distribution. Three Lee-Carter models are then fitted for all countries, each describing the mortality of the total, female and male...     »