The lack of the aircraft low energy state awareness is one of the most influential precursors of Loss of Control In-flight (LOC-I) accidents or incidents in aviation in general. Quantifying the probability of low energy state events and mapping the relationship between contributing factors and low energy situations will bring a significant benefit to airlines flight safety. We introduce a model-based approach to quantify the probability of low energy state in the final approach phase. This paper mainly focuses on modeling the aircraft's energy based on flight operational data from the Quick Access Recorder (QAR). First, an incident metric related to low energy event is identified. Then an incident model of reproducing the low energy event is proposed to describe the physics between a specific aircraft and environmental factors. Data compatibility checks are performed to improve the quality of QAR data. Unknown parameters of the incident model are estimated via minimizing the mean square deviation between simulated and measured data. Finally, measurements related to contributing factors are extracted and the proposed incident model is validated using statistical methods. This model can be used to quantify the occurrence probability of aircraft low energy state events.     «

The lack of the aircraft low energy state awareness is one of the most influential precursors of Loss of Control In-flight (LOC-I) accidents or incidents in aviation in general. Quantifying the probability of low energy state events and mapping the relationship between contributing factors and low energy situations will bring a significant benefit to airlines flight safety. We introduce a model-based approach to quantify the probability of low energy state in the final approach phase. This paper...     »