Runway overrun is one of the main accident types in airline operations. Nevertheless, due to the high safety levels in the aviation industry, the probability of a runway overrun is small. This motivates the use of structural reliability concepts to estimate this probability. We apply the physicallybased model for the landing process of Drees and Holzapfel (2012) in combination with a probabilistic model of the input parameters. Subset simulation is used to estimate the probability of runway overrun for different runway conditions. We also carry out a sensitivity analysis to estimate the influence of each input random variable on the probability of an overrun. Importance measures and parameter sensitivities are estimated based on the samples from subset simulation and concepts of the first-order reliability method (FORM).      «

Runway overrun is one of the main accident types in airline operations. Nevertheless, due to the high safety levels in the aviation industry, the probability of a runway overrun is small. This motivates the use of structural reliability concepts to estimate this probability. We apply the physicallybased model for the landing process of Drees and Holzapfel (2012) in combination with a probabilistic model of the input parameters. Subset simulation is used to estimate the probability...     »