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Dokumenttyp:
Zeitschriftenaufsatz 
Autor(en):
Engel, J.; Wahl, M.; Zagst, R. 
Titel:
Forecasting turbulence in the Asian and European stock market using regime-switching models 
Abstract:
An early warning system to timely forecast turbulences in the Asian and European stock market is proposed. To ensure comparability, the model is constructed analogously to the early warning system for the US stock market presented by Hauptmann et al. (2014). Based on the time series of discrete monthly returns of the Nikkei 225 and the EuroStoxx 50, filtered probabilities are estimated by two successive Markov-switching models with two regimes each. The market is thus separate...    »
 
Stichworte:
Early warning system, Logistic regression models, Markov-switching models 
Zeitschriftentitel:
Working Paper, submitted for publication 
Jahr:
2017 
Sprache:
en 
Status:
Preprint / submitted 
TUM Einrichtung:
Lehrstuhl für Finanzmathematik