Long product life cycles paired with a high degree of uncertainty about the state of the long-term future make the product development process very challenging in the aviation industry. Future customer needs and environmental constraints must be anticipated, which severely increases the risk of failure when developing a new product. This paper presents a scenario-based approach to product development with the goal to better handle uncertainty and mitigate the risks. By exemplarily exploring the potentials of a more personalized air transport system, three alternative future scenarios in 2050 are created. The subsequent derivation of high-level requirements reveals a clear individualization trend of the mobility needs of future customers. Two key customer groups are determined: elderly people whose travel plans are merely motivated by leisure activities, and businesspersons who require a flexible and reliable air transport system with reasonable trip costs. Concepts of operations that were specifically developed for each scenario to meet the respective market constraints and customer needs expose a high potential of a more automated transport system that is able to seamlessly combine several transport modes without the traveler’s interference.     «

Long product life cycles paired with a high degree of uncertainty about the state of the long-term future make the product development process very challenging in the aviation industry. Future customer needs and environmental constraints must be anticipated, which severely increases the risk of failure when developing a new product. This paper presents a scenario-based approach to product development with the goal to better handle uncertainty and mitigate the risks. By exemplarily exploring the...     »