A new modeling approach which combined survival probabilities for spruce with financial optimization showed a considerably reduction in financial risk in spruce (Picea abies [L.] Karst.) stands with an admixture of a 20{%} proportion of beech (Fagus sylvatica L.). The admixture enhanced the stability of the spruce component against natural hazards, such as storm or insect damage. Here, these new survival investigations were integrated into a bio-economic modeling approach called silvicultural economics. A new failure model which includes the benefits of ecological interactions for decreasing hazard risk for spruce was developed. The modeling technique is based on Monte-Carlo-Simulation and on simultaneous portfolio optimization of management strategies under risk. Area proportions were allocated as decision variables to each tree species and to regeneration harvests at various points in time in order to achieve the maximum financial return given a predefined, acceptable risk. The simultaneous optimization led to a mixed -- and, through long regeneration periods -- to an uneven-aged forest stand, for almost all predefined risk-levels. In addition, for a selection of possible even-aged tree species compositions, a stand-level mixture (including the species interactions of the new model) was compared with the same species proportion at the stand level, but consisting of two separated parts of spruce and beech (thus excluding species interactions). For all even-aged and interacting mixtures that were investigated, a higher expected return and a lower financial risk were achieved when compared to the identical even-aged mixture proportions without interactions. When the timing and distribution of regeneration harvests was also optimized (as opposed to using a clear-cut strategy) there was a slight loss in financial return, but the reduction in risk was even greater, given the same tree species proportion -- especially in cases with a low beech admixture. Compared to the simulation which excluded the stabilizing effect of beech on spruce, the variant with interacting tree species allowed for higher spruce proportions and shorter regeneration cycles for the same acceptable risk.     «

A new modeling approach which combined survival probabilities for spruce with financial optimization showed a considerably reduction in financial risk in spruce (Picea abies [L.] Karst.) stands with an admixture of a 20{%} proportion of beech (Fagus sylvatica L.). The admixture enhanced the stability of the spruce component against natural hazards, such as storm or insect damage. Here, these new survival investigations were integrated into a bio-economic modeling approach called silvicultural ec...     »